GeoForecaster

Methodology

Understanding our data sources, extraction processes, and analytical frameworks.

Data Source

GeoForecaster exclusively uses data from the CIA World Factbook, a comprehensive reference resource produced by the Central Intelligence Agency with information on the history, people, government, economy, energy, geography, environment, communications, transportation, military, terrorism, and transnational issues for 267 world entities.

Public Domain Notice

The World Factbook is in the public domain and may be used freely by anyone at anytime without seeking permission. However, US Government photographs from the Factbook are generally not copyrightable.

Currently, GeoForecaster has processed the 2010 edition. Multi-year trend analysis requires additional historical editions to be ingested.

Data Extraction

Raw Factbook data is extracted using a custom Python script that parses HTML editions and transforms unstructured text into normalized JSON records.

Extraction Pipeline

1
HTML Parsing

Stream-process large HTML files (~18MB) to extract country sections

2
Field Extraction

Regular expressions identify and parse specific data fields (GDP, population, military spending, etc.)

3
Normalization

Convert varied formats (e.g., "$14.2 trillion", "14,200 billion") to consistent numeric values

4
JSON Output

Generate per-country JSON files with standardized schema

Data Limitations

  • Estimates may vary from other sources due to differing methodologies
  • Some fields may be unavailable for certain countries
  • Data reflects the publication year, not real-time information
  • Small territories and dependencies may have incomplete records

Key Metrics

GDP (PPP)

Billions USD

Gross Domestic Product measured at Purchasing Power Parity. PPP adjusts for price differences between countries, providing a more accurate comparison of actual economic output and living standards.

GDP Growth

Percentage

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. A positive rate indicates economic expansion.

Military Expenditure

% of GDP

Military spending as a share of gross domestic product. Higher percentages may indicate regional tensions, defense priorities, or geopolitical ambitions.

Trade Balance

Billions USD

Exports minus imports. A positive balance (surplus) indicates a country exports more than it imports; negative (deficit) indicates the reverse.

Population Growth

Percentage

Annual population growth rate accounting for births, deaths, and net migration. Negative growth may indicate demographic challenges.

Composite Risk Index

Our Risk/Stability Index aggregates multiple indicators into a single composite score for each country, enabling quick assessment of geopolitical risk.

Economic Stability

30%
  • GDP growth rate
  • Inflation rate
  • Unemployment rate
  • External debt ratio

Political Risk

25%
  • Leadership tenure
  • Election cycle proximity
  • Government type stability

Military Tension

25%
  • Military spending % GDP
  • Regional military context
  • Historical conflicts

Demographic Pressure

20%
  • Population growth
  • Median age
  • Urbanization rate
  • Life expectancy

* Index calculations use z-score normalization against global and regional baselines. Higher scores indicate greater stability.

Multi-Year Analysis

Full time-series trend analysis requires ingesting multiple Factbook editions. The system is designed to seamlessly incorporate additional years.

Recommended Historical Editions

2000

Pre-9/11

2010

Post-Crisis

Loaded

2020

Pre-Pandemic

Ingestion Workflow

# 1. Download HTML factbook

wget https://www.gutenberg.org/files/.../factbook_2000.html

# 2. Run extraction script

python extract_factbook.py factbook_2000.html --year 2000

# 3. Merge time-series data

python merge_timeseries.py

# 4. Restart application

npm run dev

After ingestion, the application automatically detects available years and enables time-series visualizations in the Trends and Analysis pages.

Update Frequency

The CIA World Factbook is updated continuously throughout the year, with major releases typically occurring annually. This platform processes static snapshots of historical editions rather than live data feeds.

For real-time geopolitical intelligence, users should supplement GeoForecaster with authoritative news sources and official government publications.

Attribution & License

Data

CIA World Factbook

Public Domain

Application Code

GeoForecaster Platform

MIT License

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